Oscars: Best Picture — First Projections After Cannes and What to Expect From Studio Slates

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:


UPDATED: June 1, 2023

2023 Oscars Predictions:
Best Picture

Weekly Commentary: We briefly interrupt your Emmy Awards season to review the upcoming film awards rosters for next year’s Academy Awards.

The Cannes Film Festival concluded where Neon’s “Anatomy of a Fall” won the Palme d’Or,r with A24’s “The Zone of Interest” taking the runner-up slot. Both international dramas have the type of acclaim that could garner industry-wide support. Not to mention the potential for two non-English language titles making the best picture lineup.

Apple’s “Killers of the Flower Moon,” which premiered out-of-competition, firmly placed the Martin Scorsese epic in the hunt with the star power of Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert DeNiro and the discovery of Lily Gladstone.

In addition, Todd Haynes’ “May December” was well received before Netflix picked it up. The dramedy will be a hot title with contenders like Julianne Moore and Natalie Portman in the mix. Finally, we’ll see how U.S. audiences react to generally well-received films like Wes Anderson’s “Asteroid City,” which also debuted in France.

The first ranked listing below is preliminary and won’t be updated again until the fall festival season. Additionally, all release dates are subject to change, and not every film, title or producing credits have been confirmed.

The 50,000-foot overview of all other categories can be found on the Oscars collective page.


The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 18, 2023. Preliminary shortlist voting will begin on Dec. 18, with the results announced on Dec. 21. The voting period will run from Jan. 11-16, 2024, with the official nominations announcement on Jan. 23.

The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10.

And the Predicted Nominees Are:

  1. Maestro” (Netflix)
    Fred Berner, Bradley Cooper, Amy Durning, Emma Tillinger Koskoff, Kristie Macosko Krieger, Todd Phillips, Martin Scorsese, Steven Spielberg
  2. Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
    Dan Friedkin, Martin Scorsese, Bradley Thomas, Daniel Lupi
  3. Saltburn” (Amazon Studios)
    Emerald Fennell, Josey McNamara, Tom Ackerley, Margot Robbie
  4. Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
    Emma Thomas, Charles Roven, Christopher Nolan
  5. Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
    Cale Boyter, Tanya Lapointe, Patrick McCormick, Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve
  6. The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
    Mark Johnson, Bill Block, David Hemingson
  7. The Zone of Interest” (A24)
    Ewa Puszczynska, James Wilson
  8. Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon)
    Marie-Ange Luciani, David Thion
  9. May December” (Netflix)
    Jessica Elbaum, Will Ferrell, Grant S. Johnson, Pamela Koffler, Tyler W. Konney, Sophie Mas, Natalie Portman, Christine Vachon
  10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)
    Avi Arad, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Amy Pascal, Christina Steinberg

Next in Line

  1. Bob Marley: One Love” (Paramount Pictures)
  2. The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
  3. Past Lives” (A24)
  4. The Book of Clarence” (Sony Pictures)
  5. Freud’s Last Session” (Sony Pictures Classics)
  6. Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures)
  7. Air” (Amazon Studios)
  8. Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
  9. The Killer” (Netflix)
  10. Wish” (Walt Disney Pictures)

Other Top-Tier Possibilities

  1. Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
  2. Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
  3. Foe” (Amazon Studios)
  4. Challengers” (Amazon/MGM)
  5. Fair Play” (Netflix)
  6. The Bikeriders” (20th Century Studios)
  7. Nyad” (Netflix)
  8. Rustin” (Netflix)
  9. A Little Prayer” (Sony Pictures Classics)
  10. Golda” (Bleecker Street)

Also In Contention

  1. Asteroid City” (Focus Features)
  2. Ferrari” (STX Films)
  3. Perfect Days” (Neon)
  4. Pain Hustlers” (Netflix)
  5. Next Goal Wins” (Searchlight Pictures)
  6. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate)
  7. Priscilla” (A24)
  8. How Do You Live?” (GKids)
  9. Shortcomings” (Sony Pictures Classics)
  10. Teachers Lounge” (Sony Pictures Classics)

All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Studio)**

  • A Haunting in Venice” (20th Century Studios)
  • The Bikeriders” (20th Century Studios)
  • Beau is Afraid” (A24)
  • Dream Scenario” (A24)
  • The Iron Claw” (A24)
  • Past Lives” (A24)
  • Priscilla” (A24)
  • Showing Up” (A24)
  • When You Finish Saving the World” (A24)
  • You Hurt My Feelings” (A24)
  • The Zone of Interest” (A24)
  • Air” (Amazon Studios)
  • The Burial” (Amazon Studios)
  • Cassandro” (Amazon Studios)
  • Foe” (Amazon Studios)
  • Saltburn” (Amazon Studios)
  • Flora and Son” (Apple Original Films)
  • Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
  • Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
  • Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie” (Apple Original Films)
  • Across the River and Into the Trees” (Bleecker Street)
  • Golda” (Bleecker Street)
  • The Origin” (Bleecker Street)
  • Untitled Mike Leigh Film” (Bleecker Street)
  • Suzume” (Crunchyroll)
  • The YouTube Effect” (Drafthouse Films)
  • Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken” (DreamWorks Animation)
  • Trolls Band Together” (DreamWorks Animation)
  • Asteroid City” (Focus Features)
  • Drive Away Dolls” (Focus Features)
  • Every Body” (Focus Features)
  • The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
  • My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3” (Focus Features)
  • A Thousand and One” (Focus Features)
  • How Do You Live?” (GKids)
  • BlackBerry” (IFC Films)
  • Monica” (IFC Films)
  • R.M.N.” (IFC Films)
  • The Pot au Feu” (IFC Films)
  • Migration” (Illumination)
  • Flamin’ Hot” (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures)
  • The Super Mario Bros. Movie” (Illumination)
  • Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate)
  • The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes” (Lionsgate)
  • John Wick Chapter 4” (Lionsgate)
  • Joy Ride” (Lionsgate)
  • Baby Ruby” (Magnet Releasing)
  • Little Richard: I Am Everything” (Magnolia Pictures)
  • Master Gardener” (Magnolia Pictures)
  • The Stones and Brian Jones” (Magnolia Pictures)
  • Untitled Ernest Cole Documentary” (Magnolia Pictures)
  • Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quanumania” (Marvel Studios)
  • Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (Marvel Studios)
  • The Marvels” (Marvel Studios)
  • Bottoms” (MGM/Orion)
  • Boys in the Boat” (MGM)
  • Challengers” (MGM)
  • Creed III” (MGM)
  • Landscape with Invisible Hand” (MGM)
  • The Nickel Boys” (MGM)
  • Untitled Cord Jefferson Movie” (MGM)
  • The Eternal Memory” (MTV Documentary Films)
  • The Delinquents” (Mubi)
  • Fallen Leaves” (Mubi)
  • The Settlers” (Mubi)
  • Unclenching the Fists” (Mubi)
  • Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon)
  • Eileen” (Neon)
  • How to Blow Up a Pipeline” (Neon)
  • La Chimera” (Neon)
  • Longlegs” (Neon)
  • Mothers’ Instinct” (Neon)
  • Perfect Days” (Neon)
  • Robot Dreams” (Neon)
  • Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget” (Netflix)
  • The Deepest Breath” (Netflix)
  • El Conde” (Netflix)
  • Fair Play” (Netflix)
  • The Killer” (Netflix)
  • Leave the World Behind” (Netflix)
  • Leo” (Netflix)
  • Maestro” (Netflix)
  • The Magician’s Elephant” (Netflix)
  • May December” (Netflix)
  • Miraculous: Ladybug & Cat Noir: The Movie” (Netflix)
  • The Monkey King” (Netflix)
  • Nimona” (Netflix)
  • Nyad” (Netflix)
  • Pain Hustlers” (Netflix)
  • Rebel Moon” (Netflix)
  • Reptile” (Netflix)
  • Rustin” (Netflix)
  • Society of the Snow” (Netflix)
  • Stamped from the Beginning” (Netflix)
  • About Dry Grasses” (No U.S. Distribution)
  • Banel Et Adams” (No U.S. Distribution)
  • The Bastard” (No U.S. Distribution)
  • Black Flies” (No U.S. Distribution)
  • The Breaking Ice” (No U.S. Distribution)
  • The Burti Flower” (No U.S. Distribution)
  • Caste” (No U.S. Distribution)
  • Club Zero” (No U.S. Distribution)
  • Firebrand” (No U.S. Distribution)
  • Four Daughters” (No U.S. Distribution)
  • Goodbye Julia” (No U.S. Distribution)
  • Hopeless” (No U.S. Distribution)
  • How to Have Sex” (No U.S. Distribution)
  • If Only I Could Hibernate” (No U.S. Distribution)
  • Il Sol Dell’Avvenire” (No U.S. Distribution)
  • Jeunesse” (No U.S. Distribution)
  • “L’Ete Dernier” (No U.S. Distribution)
  • Le Regne Animal” (No U.S. Distribution)
  • Lee” (No U.S. Distribution)
  • Les Meutes” (No U.S. Distribution)
  • Monster” (No U.S. Distribution)
  • The Mother of All Lies” (No U.S. Distribution)
  • The New Boy” (No U.S. Distribution)
  • The Old Oak” (No U.S. Distribution)
  • Omen” (No U.S. Distribution)
  • The Passion of Dodin Bouffant” (No U.S. Distribution)
  • Rapito” (No U.S. Distribution)
  • Rein a Perdre” (No U.S. Distribution)
  • Rosalie” (No U.S. Distribution)
  • The Settlers” (No U.S. Distribution)
  • Simple Comme Sylvain” (No U.S. Distribution)
  • Terrestrial Verses” (No U.S. Distribution)
  • Trans Los Angeles” (No U.S. Distribution)
  • Untitled Diane Warren Documentary Project” (No U.S. Distribution)
  • Bob Marley: One Love” (Paramount Pictures)
  • Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One” (Paramount Pictures)
  • PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie” (Paramount Pictures)
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem” (Paramount Pictures)
  • Transformers: Rise of the Beasts” (Paramount Pictures)
  • Please Don’t Destroy This Project” (Peacock)
  • Elemental” (Pixar)
  • Camp Hideout” (Roadside Attractions)
  • Chevalier” (Searchlight Pictures)
  • Magazine Dreams” (Searchlight Pictures)
  • Next Goal Wins” (Searchlight Pictures)
  • Nightbitch” (Searchlight Pictures)
  • Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
  • Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures)
  • Theater Camp” (Searchlight Pictures)
  • The Book of Clarence” (Sony Pictures)
  • Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures)
  • The Equalizer 3” (Sony Pictures)
  • Kraven the Hunter” (Sony Pictures)
  • No Hard Feelings” (Sony Pictures)
  • Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)
  • Freud’s Last Session” (Sony Pictures Classics)
  • A Little Prayer” (Sony Pictures Classics)
  • The Miracle Club” (Sony Pictures Classics)
  • Persian Version” (Sony Pictures Classics)
  • Shadya” (Sony Pictures Classics)
  • Shortcomings” (Sony Pictures Classics)
  • Teachers Lounge” (Sony Pictures Classics)
  • They Shot the Piano Player” (Sony Pictures Classics)
  • Ferrari” (STX Films)
  • Cocaine Bear” (Universal Pictures)
  • The Exorcist: Believer” (Universal Pictures)
  • Fast X” (Universal Pictures)
  • M3gan” (Universal Pictures)
  • Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
  • Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom” (Warner Bros.)
  • Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
  • Blue Beetle” (Warner Bros.)
  • The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
  • Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
  • The Flash” (Warner Bros.)
  • Wonka” (Warner Bros.)
  • Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” (Warner Bros.)
  • The Little Mermaid” (Walt Disney Pictures)
  • Wish” (Walt Disney Pictures)

** This official list is incomplete, with all release dates not yet confirmed and subject to change.

2022 category winner: “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24) — Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert and Jonathan Wang (producers)

Oscars Predictions Categories


About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

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